What is being tested?
What happens to traffic around central Namur when more streets become pedestrian-only and the surrounding circulation routes change? This study compares a reference network with a preliminary representation of the 2029 pedestrianisation plan, including its effects on surrounding roads and TEC buses.
This full-day microscopic mobility simulation, from 00:00 to 23:59, uses Monday 7 September 2026 as its observation-comparison date. Both scenarios contain 56,964 requested vehicle trips, including 1,800 scheduled TEC bus movements. The road layout is based on the 1 January 2023 network. This is a controlled comparison of road configurations, not a reconstruction of traffic in 2023 or a forecast of demand in 2029.
The selected simulation retains the same traffic results and bus route file as the earlier 1 September run. Its updated date enables comparison with stored Telraam observations for 7 September; it does not establish that passenger demand or the TEC timetable was regenerated for that Monday. The figures below therefore describe the retained 2026 test demand, with 7 September observations used as a diagnostic reference.
The area of interest (AOI) covers central Namur and surrounding approaches, including the station area. A configured 0.4 km surrounding buffer was used for network extraction. Complete road segments crossing the boundary are retained, so this is not a circle with a 400-metre radius. The results contain 926 evaluated road segments across the two scenarios.
Which changes are represented?
The City of Namur’s pedestrianisation programme combines changes to public space with changes to access and circulation. Our scenario tests a selection of those road changes through 48 operations: 16 pedestrian-only road segments, 12 directional closures and 20 speed-limit changes to 20 km/h on retained access and circulation routes.
The pedestrian restrictions cover selected sections of Rue des Carmes, Rue Saint-Joseph, Rue des Croisiers, Rue Godefroid, Rue de Bruxelles, Rue Saint-Jacques, Rue de Fer, Rue Émile Cuvelier and Rue Ponty. Other changes restrict opposing directions on the western circulation route, Avenue Fernand Golenvaux and Rue Julie Billiart. Pedestrian-only permissions exclude both regular cars and buses on those segments.
The simulation labels this scenario “Pedestrianisation full project 2029”, but its stored plan is explicitly a partial draft. In particular, it does not reproduce the changed direction on Rue des Dames Blanches or the short reversed parking-access section of Rue des Croisiers. Those missing connections matter when interpreting how traffic redistributes.
How much does the plan affect wider traffic?
Across the full day and the whole AOI, the changes are small. Average travel time falls by 0.3%, from 6.53 to 6.51 minutes, while total delay falls by 1.9%, from 2,471.6 to 2,424.1 vehicle-hours. Average network speed rises by 0.5%, and modelled CO₂ emissions fall by 0.4%.
The 95th-percentile travel time falls from 20.65 to 19.90 minutes, a reduction of 3.6%. The share of vehicles rerouted by SUMO changes from 9.73% to 9.55%; this counts rerouting during the simulation, not every journey whose initial route changes with the plan.
These results suggest broadly similar traffic performance at the tested demand level. The small differences from a single pair of runs should not be treated as evidence that the completed project will improve traffic by exactly these amounts.
When is traffic pressure highest?
Results are reported in 15-minute intervals. The congested-road indicator measures the share of evaluated road length moving below half of its free-flow reference speed.
The project scenario reaches its highest congested-road share from 09:00 to 09:15, at 9.4%, compared with 8.6% in the baseline during that interval. The baseline’s own maximum occurs slightly earlier, from 08:45 to 09:00, at 10.1%.
The largest increase relative to baseline occurs from 16:30 to 16:45: congested road length rises from 7.1% to 8.5%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points. A similar full-day average can therefore hide a more difficult interval on particular approaches.
Where does traffic slow down?
The map below compares road speeds during the 16:30–16:45 interval. Red roads are slower than in the baseline; blue roads are faster.
The strongest named-road slowdowns appear around Rond-Point de Bomel, Tunnel du Nord and Chaussée de Louvain, with additional effects on Avenue Jean Ier and Avenue des Combattants. Faster conditions appear on some sections of Rue Van Opré, Rue des Bluets and Chaussée de Waterloo. These are locations to investigate and monitor, rather than proof that every change is caused directly by traffic displaced from the pedestrian streets.
Some lower speeds on Rue de Bruxelles, Rue Lelièvre and Rue Joseph Saintraint also reflect the scenario’s new 20 km/h limits. A red segment on the speed-difference map can indicate intentional traffic calming as well as additional congestion.
Impact on public transport
The public-transport comparison follows the same 1,800 completed TEC bus movements, covering 47 lines and 141 line-direction groups. All modelled buses complete their trips in both scenarios.
Mean bus running time changes from 9.387 to 9.403 minutes—about one second longer with the project. The 95th-percentile running time falls from 19.3 to 19.1 minutes, or about 12 seconds.
The overall average hides differences between services. Line 5 toward SALZINNES Rue H. Lecocq is about 1 minute 43 seconds slower across seven matched trips, while line 72 toward NAMUR Gare des bus is about 1 minute 16 seconds slower across 15 trips. Line 89 toward NAMUR Pl. de la Station is about 1 minute 28 seconds faster, but that comparison contains only four trips. The largest individual group increases, on E78 and line 34, each concern just one trip and should not be read as typical line-wide effects.
Buses enter the cropped simulation at their first retained stop at its scheduled departure time. Later stop schedules and dwell times are preserved. These running times therefore describe the modelled portion of each service, not its complete journey outside the AOI. The test uses the same 2026 TEC service in both scenarios; it does not represent a redesigned 2029 bus network or the city-centre shuttle.
Checking the simulation against observed traffic
Six Telraam camera locations fall inside the analysis area. Nine of their 12 directions have a geometric match to a directed simulation edge; three remain unmatched. Select a location to compare the simulated 15-minute flow with observations for Monday 7 September 2026. Telraam observations are hourly; the chart expresses both observed and simulated flows as vehicles per hour so the different time resolutions can be compared.
Observed vs simulated
Traffic counters
Counters inside the analysis area, projected onto the exact network used by this simulation. Select one to compare measured and simulated flow.
All six locations have 24 hourly motor-vehicle count records per direction for 7 September. Five cameras have records marked valid; camera 5487 has records marked partial. Record availability and a geometric match do not establish agreement with observed counts.
These comparisons help assess whether the timing and scale of traffic are plausible at the measured locations. They are a diagnostic check rather than a validation of traffic on that exact date: the reference uses a 2023 road layout, and the simulation retains the earlier run’s demand and bus routes. Missing or partial observations and unmatched directions should remain visible.
What do the results mean for Namur?
At the tested demand level, this preliminary scenario produces little change in full-day traffic performance, while shifting pressure between particular roads and times. The clearest additional congestion occurs in the late afternoon, and individual bus services can experience larger changes than the almost unchanged TEC average suggests.
Both scenarios request the same number of trips, although 56,963 finish in the baseline and 56,949 with the project. The model also records some forced vehicle relocations after prolonged blocking, so completion is not evidence that every journey proceeded without disruption. Passenger demand is held fixed, and 40% of vehicles are eligible to reconsider their routes during the run; changes in travel behaviour or transport mode are not simulated.
Before using this result to assess the completed project, the missing Dames Blanches and Croisiers connections should be resolved, along with final street scope, station geometry and any bus or signal changes. Delivery, resident and taxi exemptions, new pedestrian links, walking and cycling activity, and wider public-space benefits are outside this test. The study is useful for identifying streets and services to examine next; it is not a complete appraisal of Namur’s pedestrianisation programme.